Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Is there a Real Estate Bubble?

Yes. Well, no. I guess it depends. I believe there is a mini-bubble in Oceanfront condos in Miami. Today on CNBC (aka Bubblevision) they highlighted a bar graph showing the coming supply of oceanfront condos in Miami vs. the supply of the last 10 years. Huge supply coming. Many of these are held by "investors" hoping to offload them to another "investor" IMO. I think we could definitely see some weakness there. However, an oceanfront condo in Miami Beach is a totally different world than a 3/2 townhome in SW Broward county. We are still seeing a huge demand in this type of residential property.

My answer to those worried about a bubble is this. If you are looking for a new place to live, whether it is a first home or a larger place to trade up to, don't worry about the possibility that your homes value to flatline or take say a 20% hit. You want/need a place to live so you buy what you are comfortable with.

Now if your plan is to buy a property and make $50,000 profit in two months, then you might be ready for a painful lesson from "Mr. Market."

We advise people to invest in affordable housing where you see strong demand from end users who need that type of property. That property could be in South Florida, Central Florida or North Florida. 1,000 people a day net are moving into Florida vs. leaving Florida. Most of those people are NOT independently wealthy. They need housing for their family. Thus, you will continue to see strong demand, IMO.

Have a great day and if visiting Miami beach to check out that new pre-construction oceanview condo, please don't go with any sharp objects!

Until next time...

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